The Golden State Warriors won three straight by 42 points. They are still only +8 for the year.
Six games in, a hot streak and a cold start cancel each other out. So is this team good, or not? One number answers it, and it is not the one you expect.
Stephen Curry44 vs MIN, 31 vs LAL
Yaxel Lendeborg31 and 12 vs DENFour numbers to hold in your head
Record after six games. Tenth in the West.
ESPN, Basketball-Reference, 31 Oct 2026Total scoring margin over six games. That is +1.3 a game.
Box scores, Basketball-Reference, 2026-27 regular seasonMargin over the last three games, all wins. That is +14.0 a game.
ESPN box scores, 27 to 31 Oct 2026Margin over the first three games, all losses. That is -11.3 a game.
ESPN, Yardbarker, 21 to 24 Oct 2026They lost by 22, 3 and 9. Then they won by 20, 5 and 17.
Margin is a simple idea. It is the points you scored, minus the points the other team scored. A win by 20 is a big win. A win by 5 could have gone either way.
The Golden State Warriors lost 127-105 at the Los Angeles Lakers on 21 October. They then lost 111-108 at home to the Memphis Grizzlies and 131-122 at the Phoenix Suns. After that came wins at Denver, 134-114, at Minnesota, 119-114, and at home against the Lakers, 112-95.
Fact. The last three scores come from the ESPN box scores. The first three come from ESPN's schedule data and news reports, and they add up exactly to Basketball-Reference's season totals.
Add it up and the streak cancels the slump.
Here is the whole season in one line. The last three games are worth +42. The first three are worth -34. Put them together and you get +8 over six games.
That is a margin of +1.3 a game. It is a small number. Minnesota, the best team in the West by this measure, is at +14.8.
Interpretation. A team that is +1.3 a game is, so far, close to a coin flip on any given night.
The hot streak and the cold start cancel: total margin by stretch
Points scored minus points allowed, 6 games, 2026-27 regular season. Sources: ESPN box scores, Basketball-Reference.
Eight teams in the West have a better margin. The Warriors are ninth.
We lined up all 15 Western Conference teams by points scored minus points allowed, per game. Minnesota, Memphis and Houston are far ahead at +14.8, +12.0 and +11.0. Golden State is at +1.3, just ahead of Denver at -1.2.
The standings tell the same story. The Warriors are 10th in the West at 3-3. Teams have played between 4 and 6 games, so these numbers can move fast.
Fact. Margins come from final scores. Basketball-Reference and ESPN agree for every team we checked.
Golden State is ninth of 15 in the West on scoring margin
Points scored minus points allowed per game, 2026-27 regular season to 31 Oct 2026. Teams have played 4 to 6 games. Source: Basketball-Reference, ESPN standings.
Down 23 after one quarter, up 17 at the end.
On 31 October the Lakers scored the first 14 points and led 38-15 after one quarter. The Warriors then won the next three quarters 97-57. Stephen Curry scored 31 points and made 8 of 14 threes.
One run tells the story. The Warriors scored 18 straight points, from late in the third quarter into the fourth, and turned a 2-point game into a runaway.
A small mystery sits inside the win. Yaxel Lendeborg scored 31 against Denver. Against the Lakers he was -20 in 24 minutes, with 6 points, 5 turnovers and 6 fouls. The team won by 17 anyway.
Fact. ESPN's recap calls this an NBA Cup game. The data feed lists it as regular season. Luka Doncic scored 37 for the Lakers.
Lakers 38, Warriors 15 in Q1. Warriors 97, Lakers 57 after that.
Bars show each quarter's margin. The line shows the running margin. Final: Warriors 112, Lakers 95, 31 Oct 2026. Source: box score, ESPN.
What happened this week
31 Oct · Chase Center
Warriors 112
Lakers 95Down 38-15 after one quarter, then a 97-57 finish. Curry scored 31. Game page.
ESPN box score29 Oct · Target Center
Warriors 119
Wolves 114Curry scored a season-high 44 and made all 16 free throws. ESPN says Minnesota played without Anthony Edwards. Game page.
ESPN box score and recap27 Oct · Ball Arena
Warriors 134
Nuggets 114First win of the season. Lendeborg had 31 points and 12 rebounds, and the team made 22 of 44 threes. Game page.
ESPN box score and recapIs the form real, lucky, or about to turn?
Real, but not new. Three wins by 42 points is not luck. The Warriors hit 55 of 125 threes in those games, 44%, and won the close one at Minnesota on free throws, 30 of 37 against 19 of 27.
But the numbers do not say surge. They say average. The six-game margin is +8, and a standard formula turns that into 3.2 expected wins. The real total is 3.
The form and the numbers agree: a middle-of-the-pack team with one bad week and one good week. Watch the threes. The league average is 34.6%. If the Warriors drift back toward it, the form is the part that turns.
Three wins is what the points say the Warriors should have
Wins out of 6 games. Expected wins use points scored (700) and allowed (692) with the standard exponent of 13.91. The soft end marks an estimate.
The strongest case against: the schedule has been hard.
Basketball-Reference adjusts for who a team has played. On that scale the Warriors rate +7.4, tenth in the NBA. That is far above their raw +1.3. Their opponents so far have rated +6.0 above the league average.
Take out the 127-105 opening loss, and the other five games are +30. That is +6.0 a game. One bad night can bend a six-game average a long way.
Contested. The schedule ratings come from one source and are a model's estimate. Early in a season they can swing a lot.
Adjust for the schedule and the Warriors look better
Points per game. The soft bar is a model estimate from one source: Basketball-Reference.
Sunday's test: beat the Clippers by 13 or more.
Golden State hosts the LA Clippers on Sunday 1 November at 8:30 pm EST at Chase Center. The Clippers are 1-4. ESPN's model gives the Warriors a 69.8% chance. Game page.
Here is the line that would prove the average-team read wrong. A win by 13 or more lifts the season margin from +8 to +21 over seven games. That is +3.0 a game. A loss by 8 or more would drop it to zero or below.
ESPN's injury report lists Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Moses Moody (knee) and Jimmy Butler III (knee) as out for the Warriors. The Clippers are missing Brandon Ingram and Bradley Beal.
Contested. The win chance is a model, and the injury list comes from one outlet. After six games, the fair answer is: average, with one good week. Come back after seven.
ESPN gives Golden State a 70% chance on Sunday
Warriors, 3-3
Clippers, 1-4Win by 13+: +3.0 a game. Lose by 8+: 0 or below.
Pre-game model from ESPN, Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 8:30 pm EST. A model estimate, not a result.